2013年8月2日 星期五

統一國外期貨瞭望台-QE退不退美股都偏多!?

QE退不退美股都偏多!?
圖片來源:www.everystockphoto.com                FOMC集會實況
美股四大指數近期持續維持在2008以來的新高水位,儘管近期企業因財報多空而使股價略有消長,不過整體而言,四大指數長多趨勢依然持續,就這次(2013/07)美國聯邦公開市場委員會(The Federal Open Market Committee,FOMC)利率決策會議聲明中觀察,有以下幾點探討:
  1. QE退場是既定作為,重點仍在於退場的時間點與退場執行過程。
  2. 本次會議結果明確指出,FED將持續維持現行每月購債規模,也就是說目前QE仍持續運作中。
  3. 既然QE政策尚未改變,聯邦基金利率自然持續維持在00.25%的目標區間不變。
  4. 重申QE退場條件:失業率下降至6.5%以下且通膨率在2%附近,為明確標準。
  5. 即使QE退場,到FED升息,中間可能有好幾季的緩衝期,因此最快也預估到   2014年底或2015才有升息機會。
  6. 既然QE具有刺激經濟的好處,美國也有能力持續執行,若非觀察到明確的副作 用,那QE怎會快速退場,而所謂的副作用正是未來市場關注的焦點,不過眼睛所見,通膨顯然並非想像中的嚴重。
目前,支撐美國股市維持高檔不墜的動能,與其說是持續QE的資金行情,倒不如說是預期心理的支撐,FED開出的QE退場條件目前顯然尚未實現,若是持續現行QE,則市場將維持09年以來資金行情持續偏多,而若是QE退場條件逐漸成形,市場也早已歷經今年5月聯準會主席伯南奇QE退場說的震撼教育,承受力應逐漸增強,而國際間資金也逐漸認同QE將退,而持續回流美元商品,因此,若QE退場,最佳的避險市場仍以美股莫屬,這也就難怪近期儘管QE政策紛擾,美國總體基本面也僅只是小幅走升,美股四大指數卻早已創下歷史新高或13年來新高。

圖一:道瓊指數K線圖



圖二:NASDAQ指數K線圖

圖三:S&P 500指數K線圖

圖四:費城半導體指數K線圖

圖五:美國消費者物價指數

圖六:美國失業率

統一期貨 投資顧問部期貨分析師 李宗霖

附註: FOMC 會議聲明稿全文+中文翻譯

Release Date: July 31, 2013

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June suggests that economic activity expanded at a modest pace during the first half of the year. Labor market conditions have shown further improvement in recent months, on balance, but the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, and the housing sector has been strengthening, but mortgage rates have risen somewhat and fiscal policy is restraining economic growth. Partly reflecting transitory influences, inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will pick up from its recent pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the downside risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having diminished since the fall. The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, but it anticipates that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee decided to continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. Taken together, these actions should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months. The Committee will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. The Committee is prepared to increase or reduce the pace of its purchases to maintain appropriate policy accommodation as the outlook for the labor market or inflation changes. In determining the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases, the Committee will continue to take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases as well as the extent of progress toward its economic objectives.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Jerome H. Powell; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Eric S. Rosengren; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Esther L. George, who was concerned that the continued high level of monetary accommodation increased the risks of future economic and financial imbalances and, over time, could cause an increase in long-term inflation expectations.

Last update: July 31, 2013

資料來源:FED官網

FOMC 會議聲明稿全文中文翻譯

FOMC 6 月份政策制定會議以來所收到的資訊顯示,今年上半年的經濟活動在呈現溫和擴張。就業市場在最近幾個月進一步好轉,但失業率則仍舊維持在較高水準。家庭支出和企業固定投資均有所增長,房市也已顯示出進一步改善跡象,但抵押貸款利率有些上升,以及財政政策持續壓抑經濟成長,某些程度上受到短期因素影響。但通貨膨脹持續低於FOMC的長期目標,較長期通貨膨脹展望則一直都保持穩定。

為履行法定職責,FOMC追求促進就業最大化並保持物價穩定。預計在實施適當的寬鬆政策情況下,經濟將由近期的步調加速發展,失業率將在FOMC雙重職責平衡下,逐步向目標水準下降。FOMC認為經濟與就業市場展望上,下調風險自去年秋季以來已消減。委員會認為通膨率持續低於其2%的目標會對經濟表現構成風險,但委員會預期通膨在中期會朝其目標發展。
為了支持更加強勁的經濟復甦進程和幫助確保長期的通膨水準符合FOMC的雙重使命,FOMC今天決定繼續以每個月400億美元的速度購買更多的機構抵押貸款支持債券(MBS),並以每個月450億美元的速度購買長期美國國債。FOMC將維持現有的政策,將來自於所持機構債和機構抵押貸款支持債券的本金付款再投資到機構抵押貸款支持債券,以及在國債發售交易中將即將到期的美國國債進行展期。以上這些措施應該會對長期利率造成下調壓力,對抵押貸款市場形成支撐,並有助於讓更廣泛的金融情勢變得更具融通性。

FOMC將密切監控未來幾個月中有關經濟和金融形勢的發展狀況。如果就業市場前景未能實現大幅改善,那麼FOMC將持續實施其購買美國國債和機構抵押貸款支持債券的計畫,並在適宜的情況下動用其他政策工具,直到能在物價穩定的前提下實現改善就業的目標為止。為了判定資產購買計畫的規模、速度和結構組成,FOMC將一如以往的對這種購買計畫所可能帶來的效果和成本以及朝向經濟目標所取得的進展作出適宜的考量。

為了支持朝著最大就業和物價穩定性的方向的持續進展,委員會確認以下看法:在資產購買計畫結束以及經濟復甦增強之後,在相當一段時間內維持高度寬鬆的貨幣政策立場仍將是合適之舉。尤其是,FOMC今天決定將聯邦基金利率維持在00.25%的目標區間不變,並預計至少在失業率仍舊維持在6.5%以上,通膨率在未來一兩年裡較FOMC2%長期目標高出不超過0.5%,以及長期通膨預期仍舊十分穩定的條件下,FOMC繼續維持當前極低水準的聯邦基金利率是合適的。為了判定需要在多長時間裡維持高度融通的貨幣政策立場,FOMC還將繼續對其他資訊進行評量,其中包括有關就業市場狀況的更多指標,通膨壓力和通膨預期指標,以及有關金融市場發展的解讀等。當FOMC決定開始取消政策性融通性措施時,將會採取平衡的舉措,這種舉措將符合最大就業和保持2%通膨率的長期目標。

在此次政策制定會議上投票支持FOMC貨幣政策行動的委員有:Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Jerome H. Powell; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Eric S. Rosengren; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen.
投票反對FOMC的貨幣政策行動的有:Esther L. (上次就有),理由是擔心繼續處於較高水準的貨幣融通性措施會提高未來經濟和金融不平衡性的風險,並隨著時間的推移導致長期通膨預期上升。

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